Business modeling requires analysts to produce the quantitative models that top management use to support their decision making, but top management must also understand the strengths and weaknesses of the models if they are to use them effectively to support their decisions, and robustly navigate the strategic negotiation landscape. This is particularly important for PPP projects where long term commitments are made now based on bankability, value for money and risk allocation. During the course, participants will gain knowledge and skills on the frameworks, tools, and methodologies necessary to build quantitative models for financial decision making in order to improve financial viability and bankability of PPP projects. Participants will master modeling frameworks on capital budgeting, risk measurement, regression analysis and Monte Carlo simulation among others.
WHO SHOULD ATTEND?
The course targets ppp unit personnel, ppp project managers, accountants, auditors, finance managers and ppp transaction advisors. Economists that are involved in identifying ppp project candidates will also benefit from the course. The course is also useful for engineers involved in ppp projects and employees working with special purpose vehicles (spvs) or members of the spv consortium. Additionally, those working in public sector investment programmes and in the external resources departments in the ministry of finance will find the course particularly useful.
HOW PARTICIPANTS WILL BENEFIT
At the end of the course, participants will be able to:
• Analyze the key input variables to an infrastructure financing model;
• Understand the basic principles in financial modeling;
• Estimate demand and revenue streams for the PPP projects;
• Simulate the impact of demand fluctuations and tariff changes;
• Assess the viability of PPP projects more effectively;
• Determine key financial ratios using excel worksheets for modeling;
• Perform key sensitivity and scenario analysis to determine how robust the project is;
• Develop a funding worksheet that helps determine the debt capacity of a project.
• Overview to project finance and infrastructure investment analysis;
• Financial modeling principles;
• Identifying and structuring the input variables to a financial model
• Advanced MS-Excel techniques;
• Modeling financial reports;
• Estimating demand and revenue projections;
• Determining the NPV, IRR and DCF, DCR;
• Annuity financing modeling;
• Tariff setting and tariff change impacts;
• Risk analysis;
• Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis;
• Regression analysis and forecasting.